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Macy's (M) Lined Up for Q2 Earnings: What's in the Cards?

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Macy's, Inc. (M - Free Report) is likely to register a decrease in the top line when it reports second-quarter fiscal 2022 results on Aug 23 before market open. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $5,481 million, indicating a decline of 3% from the prior-year reported figure.

The bottom line of this New York-based company is also expected to have declined year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter earnings per share has decreased by a penny to 85 cents over the past seven days. The figure suggests a sharp decline of 34.1% from the year-ago period.

We expect second-quarter net sales to be down 2.1% year over year to $5,527 million and the bottom line to decline 32.9% to 87 cents a share.

Macy's has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 198%, on average. In the last reported quarter, the company’s bottom line surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 31.7%.

Key Factors to Note

The soft consumer demand due to the inflationary environment and incremental promotional pressures are likely to have weighed on Macy’s second-quarter performance. On its last earnings call, management guided second-quarter net sales between $5,480 million and $5,550 million. This indicates a decline from the net sales of $5,647 million reported in the year-ago period. It projected adjusted earnings between 84 and 94 cents a share. This suggests a decrease from the earnings of $1.29 per share reported in the second quarter of fiscal 2021.

Management earlier highlighted that a sudden shift in demand away from casual/active and soft home categories, coupled with relaxation in supply-chain constraints, resulted in a higher percentage of receipts than expected. Markdowns to optimize inventory levels within overstock categories and the possibility of an elevated promotional environment, given the high inventory levels in the industry, might have hurt margins and, in turn, the bottom line.

Despite the aforementioned headwinds, we believe Macy’s successful execution of the Polaris strategy, robust omnichannel capabilities, curated merchandise assortment and initiatives to provide customers with a seamless shopping experience should have provided some cushion to the stock.

Macy's, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Macy's, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Macy's, Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Macy's, Inc. Quote

What the Zacks Model Unveils

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Macy’s this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. However, that’s not the case here.

Macy’s has an Earnings ESP of +0.53% but a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Stocks With the Favorable Combination

Here are some companies you may want to consider as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat:

Dollar General (DG - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.04% and a Zacks Rank of 2. The company is likely to register an increase in the bottom line when it reports second-quarter fiscal 2022 results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly earnings has risen by a penny over the past 30 days to $2.93 per share. The consensus mark for DG’s earnings per share suggests 8.9% growth from the year-ago quarter’s reported number. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Dollar General’s top line is expected to have risen year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $9.39 billion, which suggests a rise of 8.6% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter. DG delivered an earnings beat of 2.8%, on average, in the trailing four quarters.

Ulta Beauty (ULTA - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +4.07% and a Zacks Rank #2. The company is expected to register a bottom-line increase when it reports second-quarter fiscal 2022 results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly earnings per share of $4.90 suggests an increase of 7.5% from the year-ago quarter.

Ulta Beauty’s top line is anticipated to have risen year over year. The consensus mark for ULTA’s revenues is pegged at $2.2 billion, indicating an increase of 11.7% from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter. ULTA has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 49.8%, on average.

Dollar Tree (DLTR - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.75% and a Zacks Rank #2. The company is likely to register an increase in the bottom line when it reports second-quarter fiscal 2022 numbers. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly earnings per share of $1.57 suggests an increase of 27.6% from the year-ago quarter.

Dollar Tree’s top line is expected to have increased year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $6.79 billion, which indicates an increase of 7% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter. DLTR has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 13.1%, on average.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

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